Is there any candidate capable of beating Trump in Republican primary elections next year?

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    Picture: Gage Skidmore

    Next year Republican primaries will be different from others we have seen. Everyone could have thought that when “grab her by the pussy” tape surfaced he was automatically doomed.

    Reality right now tell us that he overcame every crisis until now to become U.S. President and he manages to have his supporters elected in majority of states. Some of those republican critics (ornever-trumpers)have paid the price.

    Opposite to Trump’s popularity inside the GOP we have opinion polls across the country. Last 5 polls made in December, 2018 said that between 48-56% of Americans disapprove Trump’s presidency, even though this data is irrelevant today.

    Area polledSegment polledPolling groupDateApproveDisapproveUnsureSample sizePolling method
    United StatesUnited StatesAll adultsYouGovDecember 6-8, 201841%52%2%1,000online
    All adultsYouGov(forThe Economist)December 2-4, 201843%48%8%1,500online
    United StatesUnited StatesAll adultsNPR/PBS NewsHour/MaristNovember 28 – December 4, 201842%49%9%1,075telephone
    United StatesUnited StatesAll adultsIpsos(forReuters)November 28 – December 4, 201841%52%6%2,401online
    United StatesUnited StatesAll adultsGallupNovember 26 – December 2, 201840%56%1,500telephone
    United StatesUnited StatesAll adultsInvestor’s Business DailyNovember 26 – December 2, 201839%55%2%823telephone

    Source: Wikipedia

    Republican primaries will be in 2019 and there is a bunch of polls already trying to guess if Donald Trump is at risk of losing his candidacy for 2020 elections. If he didn’t win, he would become the first incumbent to lose a primary election. Chances of this scenario actually going on are very, very low.

    Last 36 out of 37 polls give Donald Trump a victory next year in republican primaries. Undecided people are around 10 to 20% but Donald Trump supporters never go lower than 44%. If republicans had to vote today, it would be extremely rare to see other candidate winning than Donald Trump.

    But 2020 elections are still open, there is no favorite candidate to be elected next president and until next year we will not see if Donald Trump has to campaign against other republican candidate.

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin
    of error
    Jeb
    Bush
    Bob
    Corker
    Tom
    Cotton
    Ted
    Cruz
    Jeff
    Flake
    Nikki
    Haley
    John
    Kasich
    Mike
    Pence
    Mitt
    Romney
    Marco
    Rubio
    Paul
    Ryan
    Ben
    Sasse
    Donald
    Trump
    OtherUndecided
    Harvard-HarrisNovember 27–28, 20188193%5%2%2%6%6%5%1%44%2%16%
    HarrisXNovember 16–17, 201832017%66%17%
    9%70%21%
    13%69%18%
    14%67%19%
    19%69%12%
    20%65%15%
    8%70%21%
    Harvard-HarrisJune 24–25, 201843015%85%
    Saint Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 201863%24%13%
    USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesDecember 15, 2017 – January 15, 20181,530± 3.0%75%25%
    Emerson CollegeJanuary 8–11, 201819868%18%14%
    GQR Research/Democracy CorpsJanuary 6–11, 20183744%1%4%3%11%5%5%62%0%5%
    Public Policy PollingDecember 11–12, 201721%64%15%
    16%74%10%
    19%70%11%
    22%62%15%
    70%24%6%
    Public Religion Research InstituteOctober 18–30, 201784659%34%7%
    Public Policy PollingOctober 27–29, 201727%57%16%
    14%70%16%
    24%66%11%
    28%53%19%
    57%36%8%
    Public Policy PollingSeptember 22–25, 201715%68%17%
    18%68%13%
    21%59%21%
    61%27%12%
    Fabrizio LeeAugust 20171,500± 2.5%1%13%10%1%54%20%
    Public Policy PollingAugust 18–21, 201722%62%17%
    21%68%11%
    24%52%23%
    57%29%13%
    Opinion SavvyAugust 16–17, 2017220± 6.6%8%17%68%7%
    221± 6.6%12%15%65%8%
    Marist CollegeAugust 8–12, 2017361± 5.2%23%64%10%
    33%56%8%

    Source: Wikipedia

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